Earlier this week it appeared Iran was making a subtle, but noticeable shift in the negotiations over the Iranian nuclear program. The P5+1 group (permanent UN Security Council members plus Germany) had submitted a proposal (essentially the same one submitted two years ago, but including some unknown incentives for Iran) and were awaiting a response from the Iranians. Advance word was that Iran was requesting more negotiations with the European Union Foreign Minister Javier Solana and public statements from Iranian Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki were oblique, but promising in tone that some shift had occurred with the Iranians.
The Iranians formally responded Friday to Solana. Public statements from the negotiating parties were similar; careful, no detail, and with a considerably reduced level of rhetoric. From the NY Times:
“We intend to study the Iranian response,” said Gordon D. Johndroe, deputy White House press secretary, in a statement. He said the United States would discuss the letter with the five other governments — Britain, France, Germany, Russia and China — “before responding formally.”
Similarly, a British Foreign Office official said, “We have received the Iranian response and we are consulting” with the other governments before responding.
Foreign Minister Mottaki
appeared on Fareed Zakaria's GPS this morning and, following the
interview, CNN analysts agreed Mr. Mottaki's tone was markedly more
conciliatory then in the past; that Iran seemed to be now interested
in, at least, "talking about talking". CNN's Christine Amanpour
reported the P5+1 proposal included a six week moratorium on Iranian
nuclear expansion in exchange for no further UN sanctions, the "freeze
for freeze" approach.
Christine Amanpour also noted this morning the "freeze for freeze" proposal now being considered is nearly identical to a proposal made two years ago. At the time, it's thought Iran had 90 working centrifuges enriching uranium. They now have over 3,000 centrifuges performing uranium enrichment. That's referred to as a missed opportunity.
Iranian political changes also suggest there may be an opportunity for more
productive negotiations. The re-emergence of Ali Larijani bodes well
for improved dialog with the west. Larijani had been a senior Iranian
foreign policy figure who was fired by Iranian President Mahmoud
Ahmadinejad. Larijani was just elected to speaker of the Iranian
Parliament by a large margin, signaling Parliament's discontent with
Ahmadinejad and, perhaps, a willingness on Larijani's part to challenge
Ahmadinejad in next June's presidential election. While Larijani is
well connected within the Iranian theocracy, he is also known as being
a moderate and pragmatist.
With any luck, the sane, adult forces within the Bush Administration
who prevailed in the recent, successful negotiations with disarming
North Korea will be able to flex their muscles and assert themselves in
the negotiations with Iran. It seems obvious the White House's saber
rattling towards Iran is having little effect (and is likely the reason
the "freeze for freeze" proposal 2 years ago was rejected), just as the
saber rattling towards North Korea stymied initial progress on
negotiations.
One would think President Bush would be very interested in completing a peaceful negotiation to the Iranian nuclear problem before he leaves office. That would sure make a great entry in the Legacy section of his resume.
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