You may not have heard it, amidst the roar of impending U.S. economic collapse and Sarah Palin faux pas, but the U.S. military is very loudly calling out we're about to lose the war in Afghanistan. A week ago came the news that the recent National Intelligence Estimate on Afghanistan, the compiled opinions of 17 federal agencies and departments, was making the review rounds in Washington. Those who've seen the report call it "grim", and Director of National Intelligence Mike McConnell has "no plans to declassify" any of the report before the presidential election in November.
"We
are now at a tipping point, with about half of the country now
penetrated by a range of Sunni militant groups including the Taliban
and al Queida," (Afghanistan expert, Seth) Jones said. Jones said there
is growing concern that Dutch and Canadian forces in Afghanistan would
"call it quits."
"The US military would then need six, eight, maybe ten brigades but we just don't have that many," Jones said.
Last
week, Admiral Michael Mullen, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of
Staff, told Congress "we're running out of time" in Afghanistan. "I'm
not convinced we're winning it in Afghanistan," Adm. Mullen testified.
Perhaps foreshadowing the NIE assessment on Afghanistan, Adm. Mullen
told Congress, "absent a broader international and interagency approach
to the problems there, it is my professional opinion that no amount of
troops in no amount of time can ever achieve all the objectives we seek
in Afghanistan."
Today it was reported the contents of a leaked French memorandum include Britain's ambassador to Afghanistan, Sir Sherard Cowper-Coles, asserting the Afghan government's corruption and NATO troops are compounding the problems and coalition forces should begin preparing public opinion to accept the inevitable; rule by "an acceptable dictator".
Given the difficulty in manning the coalition military efforts in Afghanistan, NATO commander Gen. David McKiernan has suggested enlisting tribes to help pacify the country and is now considering a reconcilliation between the Karzai government and ousted Taliban leader, Mullah Mohammed Omar.
General
David McKiernan said reconciliation efforts should be led by the Afghan
Government, but the military would support it. Asked if dealing with
the man who harboured al-Qaida leader Osama bin Laden was beyond the
pale, he said: "I think that's a political decision."
"Ultimately, the solution in Afghanistan is going to be a political
solution not a military solution," he said. "We're not going to run out
of bad guys there."
Speaking today at the Pentagon, Gen McKiernan said more military presence in Afghanistan is "needed as quickly as possible".
The
general said the threat to U.S. troops, which he said has risen
significantly from last year, comes from "an increased number of
fighters" reaching Afghanistan from neighboring Pakistan's lawless
tribal regions, CNN reported.
He said additional support should include "boots on the ground,"
helicopters, increased intelligence assets, logistics and
transportation.
Last week, CNN said, U.S. Defense Secretary Robert Gates announced a
Marine battalion will go to Afghanistan in November, followed by an
Army brigade in January. However, no more forces will be available for
Afghanistan duty until spring or summer of next year, the U.S. network
said. (Link)
The U.S. has been hoping to fight the Afghanistan war on the cheap for the last seven years, choosing to invest nearly all the U.S. efforts and treasure into the war in Iraq. And the results are becoming more clear. In February, Gen. David Richards, who had headed up the NATO forces prior to Gen. McKiernan, said "If NATO doesn't succeed in bringing substantial economic development to Afghanistan soon, some 70 per cent of Afghans will shift their loyalty to the Taliban."
It will be truly tragic if the U.S. has squandered the opportunities in the war the American people thought all along was justified (Afghanistan) and managed, at tremendous cost, to bring some semblance of normalcy to a country(Iraq) that most American's wanted no part of.
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