Almost exactly a year ago, I posted a kinda wise ass piece on Apophis, a 1,000 feet wide, 50 million ton asteroid. Discovered in 2004, it's hurling towards earth and has a 1 in 44,000 chance of colliding with earth in 2036. NASA has been watching the path of Apophis fairly carefully, as you might imagine, and the space agency's representatives have said that the asteroid colliding with earth would be "devastating".
I have to admit the whole computation of odds thing has taken on new significance for me in light of yesterdays post on the odds of being caught in a plane with a terrorist or dating a supermodel. And if the odds of a devastating collision between a 50 million ton asteroid and the earth is twice as likely as a regular joe dating a supermodel and ten times more likely than getting stuck in an airplane with a terrorist, perhaps there is something to be aware of here.
NASA has done a simulation of Apophis' path as it approaches Earth:
Close, huh? And that's the best case. The news today that Russia's space agency doesn't share NASA's optimism is a bit unsettling.
Russia's space agency expects an asteroid to hit Earth in 2036 and has created an international project to prevent the collision by disrupting its trajectory.
Roscosmos chief Anatoly Perminov said Wednesday the project may involve the building and deployment of a spacecraft that will break the path of Apophis without using a nuclear explosive.
More precisely, the date in 2036 is April 13th. Easter Sunday.
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